50x30 Consistent Governments

The following governments have committed to at least 50% emissions reductions by 2030, as compared to the pathways in the SR1.5 by Climate Analytics in recent analysis.  The SR1.5 determined that 50% reductions are needed by 2030 in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.  These SR1.5 pathways are based on 2010 emissions, and include all sectors and emissions impacting the global climate, both CO2 and non-CO2; so the figures shown here may be slightly different than those in official government publications or UNFCCC submissions.

 

If every country followed similar pathways and reductions, we would hold the world near or under 1.5°C of warming. Otherwise, we will overshoot this temperature limit.  Depending on the degree of overshoot, we will then trigger some, or many of the outlined irreversible global impacts from cryosphere.

 

United Kingdom

Summary:

 

The UK’s December 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the UNFCCC incorporated a strengthened 2030 goal of at least a 68% reduction below 1990 levels (1995 levels for some gases), committing the UK to an ambitious level of domestic climate action. This equates to a 69% reduction below 1990 levels once emissions from LULUCF are excluded and non-CO2 gases are converted to global warming potentials (AR4) as used in the UK's current inventory.

 

The 68% target is a significant strengthening of its previous 57% target, is broadly aligned with the rate of necessary global emissions reductions implied by 1.5°C global mitigation pathways published by the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC); and is also aligned with the UK’s 2050 net-zero GHG emissions target. However, the UK has yet to adopt and implement ambitious policies necessary to achieve this new 2030 target and firmly set itself on a path to net zero. Once it does, it will become one of the first countries globally to bring its domestic emissions into line with what would be necessary globally for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

 

Climate Action Tracker Analysis of Dec. 2020 NDC Update:
Full text available at https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/united-kingdom/ 

On 12 December 2020, the UK submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC, committing to “at least a 68%” reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels (1995 levels for F-gases) by 2030.
Achievement of the NDC target will be measured against the UK’s GHG inventory published in 2032, which will utilise global warming potentials (GWP) for non-CO2 gases from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In addition, it
will include an updated methodology for estimating emissions from peatlands. After accounting for these methodological changes, as well as the fact that the base year for F-gases will be 1995 levels rather than 1990, the UK’s statutory advisory body, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), has calculated the 2030 emissions level implied by the 68% target to be 277 MtCO2e (including LULUCF emissions).

 

The CAT uses GWP values from the AR4 and excludes LULUCF emissions. The UK’s NDC target is equivalent to 251 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF (245 MtCO2e incl. LULUCF) using AR4 values and the existing peatland methodology. This represents a 69% reduction below 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF and with 1995 levels for F gases). The target does not cover emissions from the UK’s Crown Dependencies or Overseas Territories, which represent about 1% of the UK’s
emissions.

 

A 68% reduction in domestic GHG emissions is a significant strengthening of its previous 2030 target of a 57% reduction below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) derived from the UK’s fifth carbon budget (2028-2032). It is also broadly aligned with the rate of necessary global emissions reductions implied by 1.5°C global mitigation pathways published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

 

The UK Government’s recently-released emissions projections show that, under current policies, it is not on track to achieve its former 57% target, let alone its newly announced 68% target. Recently-announced policies, including a 2030 ban on the sale of fossil fuel cars and a ramping up of renewable energy investment, particularly into offshore wind, are the kind of ambitious actions that will be required across all sectors of the UK economy to meet its new 2030 NDC and its 2050 net-zero target. This has been acknowledged by the UK in its NDC, with a commitment to develop further policies over time.

 

The NDC does not include additional emissions reductions from abroad to ensure the UK is contributing its fair share to the global 1.5°C emissions reduction burden under equity considerations. The UK Government has committed to not using international credits to meet its NDC domestic target in line with advice from the CCC; however, it leaves the possibility open in its official NDC submission. However, the CCC noted that it supports the use of such credits to move beyond the 68% target. It further asserted that the UK NDC should be accompanied by greater support for climate finance, particularly for developing countries.

 

The advice of the CCC aligns with the CAT’s assessment of the UK’s announced NDC that additional emissions reductions abroad, beyond its 68% domestic reduction target, are required for the UK to achieve a fully 1.5°C compatible fair share contribution to the necessary global emissions reductions.

 

The UK now has a golden opportunity to lead from the front as host of the pivotal 2021 UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP26). The UK should leverage its ambitious new 2030 NDC by pressuring world leaders that have not already done so to set similarly ambitious 2030 targets and long-term net-zero targets. In addition, an announcement prior to COP26 of considerable support measures to poorer nations towards climate mitigation efforts would make the UK a true globalfront-runner beyond its ambitious new domestic target.

 

Germany

Germany adopted its climate law in December 2019, inscribing its 2030 target of a 55% reduction below 1990 levels in legislation (German Government, 2019). In addition, Germany has committed to a 95% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. While Germany’s 2050 target falls within its 1.5°C range, a more ambitious 2030 target is needed.

 

The 1.5°C compatible domestic 2030 emission reduction range for Germany is 65-75%, so a minimum 65% domestic reduction is needed.

Screenshot 2021-04-11 21.27.25.png

Germany current policies and targets vs. temperature ranges.

Source: Climate Analytics Breefing: European Union climate goals need to be brought

into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5o C limit, 9 December 2020. 

 

Denmark

In its path to 2050 carbon neutrality, Denmark is committed to reducing emissions 70% by 2030 from 1990 levels, which is consistent with a reduction of 50% from 2010 levels and the 1.5°C pathways outlined in the SR1.5.  This 2030 goal, as well as a long-term 2050 carbon neutrality strategy were made legally binding through a climate law passed in June 2020.  Denmark has already passed laws/regulations that encompass one-third of the 2030 reductions needed.  Adopted measures include replacement of gas-fired and oil-fired boilers, conversion of arable land on organic soils, energy efficiency in buildings, phase-out of remaining coal use and waste recycling; as well as various fuel requirements and tax incentives in the transport sector.  Future 2030 measures will need to focus on additional reductions from the transport, energy and agricultural sectors; though the greatest amount of reductions in Denmark’s very extensive agricultural industry will come after 2030.

 

Significantly, although not entirely part of its domestic reductions, Parliament has broadly agreed to phase out Danish oil and gas extraction in the North Sea, and Denmark cancelled its current and all future licensing rounds for new production. The agreement establishes final phase-out of fossil fuel extraction no later than 2050, with a just transition for impacted workers.

 
 

Finland

Finland’s current government has pledged carbon neutrality by 2035, using new sinks (such as peatland restoration) as well as emission reductions of at least 80% from 1990 levels. Finland’s current Climate Change Act, from 2015, would reach this 80% reduction in 2050, but the government has introduced plans to amend the Act to reflect these new pledges. These goals are broadly consistent therefore with the SR1.5 pathways of 50% reductions by 2030.

 

Finland’s Climate and Energy Strategy and Medium-term Climate Change Policy Plan (KAISU) will be updated during 2021, and addresses reductions in transport, agriculture, building heating and energy efficiency, waste management and F-gas emissions.

Sweden

Sweden has a 2030 benchmark target of 63 percent lower than 1990, with carbon neutrality by 2045 or earlier and negative emissions therafter. The 2045 target has been enshrined in the 2017 Climate Act. These targets are broadly consistent with the SR1.5°C benchmark of 45-60% reductions by 2030, based on 2010 emissions.

 

The 2017 Act established that the Government's climate policy must be based on the climate targets and specifies how implementation is to be carried out. The Act states that the Government shall:
     ● present a climate report in its Budget Bill each year;
     ● draw up a climate policy action plan every fourth year to describe how the climate targets are to be achieved.
     ● make sure that climate policy goals and budget policy goals work together